Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 33.203629 39.314178 45.981922 53.766001 62.570605 72.187381 83.451219
2025-06-08 23.116357 30.992342 40.422953 52.406753 67.078737 84.301742 105.880491
2025-06-15 18.593449 27.419086 38.747953 54.051792 73.850701 98.249620 130.199494
2025-06-22 14.552441 23.441933 35.598016 52.930070 76.440444 106.618492 147.595979
2025-06-29 12.389379 21.537104 34.735002 54.409693 82.136938 118.893650 170.232121
2025-07-06 9.579079 18.117125 31.175045 51.583782 81.510446 122.510277 181.423839
2025-07-13 8.401225 17.014082 30.813301 53.190503 87.015161 134.517547 204.229405
2025-07-20 7.365586 15.946600 30.323467 54.462214 91.992284 145.908046 226.558523
2025-07-27 6.580126 15.169903 30.170877 56.167878 97.622244 158.386219 250.819538
2025-08-03 5.846241 14.350683 29.821591 57.467402 102.627944 170.094184 274.348385
2025-08-10 4.929235 12.994900 28.354452 56.742906 104.347419 176.929970 290.981575
2025-08-17 4.333488 12.184287 27.754822 57.393244 108.227583 187.093038 312.780522
2025-08-24 3.712782 11.253590 26.923703 57.759153 111.991080 197.753446 336.559324
2025-08-31 2.965564 9.857028 25.005196 56.004742 112.138407 202.880279 352.348629
2025-09-07 2.646134 9.431122 24.980642 57.723208 118.268106 217.681300 383.473796
2025-09-14 2.151481 8.404412 23.526291 56.540001 119.203768 224.101598 401.719722
2025-09-21 1.919431 8.047550 23.483230 58.099575 125.078375 238.783700 433.438282
2025-09-28 1.458996 6.848487 21.314842 55.120493 122.454883 239.188117 442.306791
2025-10-05 1.312798 6.611953 21.398487 56.814505 128.575209 254.519300 475.748435
2025-10-12 1.167279 6.330432 21.326051 58.154925 134.077254 268.972130 508.165414
2025-10-19 1.056977 6.141813 21.462297 59.952234 140.535009 285.284012 544.099471
2025-10-26 0.942717 5.897412 21.413085 61.321201 146.210973 300.407992 578.463055
2025-11-02 0.774941 5.359255 20.471415 60.558030 147.601188 307.996161 600.380901